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☆ The US may be 'sleepwalking' into a recession as cracks form in the labor market, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe US could be "sleepwalking" into a recession, and signs of a downturn in key areas of the economy are starting to show, according to top economist David Rosenberg. That's a strong sign the economy is weakening, as manufacturing has only contracted on two occasions since 1997 without the economy later slipping into recession, Rosenberg noted. The 2-10 Treasury yield curve, a notoriously accurate recession indicator, has signaled a coming downturn since July 2022. The labor market is cracking, a slowdown in services activity is dragging on real-time growth, and forward looking financial signals still point to a coming slowdown," Rosenberg said. Rosenberg has been warning of a coming recession for months — and fears of a downturn are rising as investors anticipate the Fed keeping interest rates higher-for-longer.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, We're, That's Organizations: Service, Business, Treasury

Yet labour markets are softening, the euro zone faces recession and China's property sector is in crisis. Here's what some closely-watched market indicators say about global recession risks:1/ AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM? Britain's economy avoided the start of a recession in the third quarter but still failed to grow. Economists broadly expect the global economy to slow next year but avoid a recession. If supply shocks resulting from the Israel-Hamas war become severe enough to push Brent crude to $150, a level it has never breached, a "mild and fleeting" global recession could result, Oxford Economics reckons.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Guy Miller, COVID, Zurich Insurance's Miller, Torsten Slok, Austria's, David Katimbo, We've, Brent, Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Zurich Insurance, Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal Reserve, ECB, Apollo Global Management, P, Sweden's SBB, HK, Bank of England, Business insolvencies, EdenTree Investment Management, Oxford Economics reckons, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, China, Zurich, England, Wales, Europe, Israel

☆ The stock market could plunge as much as 27% when the economy finally tips into recession, investment research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

That's because the US economy remains on track to enter a recession as high interest rates take a toll. A downturn could cause stocks to plummet as much as 27%, the investment research firm predicted. Economists have been warning of a potential recession since 2022, when central bankers began to aggressively raise interest rates to tame high inflation. AdvertisementLending conditions are tightening under the influence of higher-for-longer interest rates, leading some experts to warn of a coming default cycle on the horizon. "Cracks" also appear to be forming in the job market as firms slow their pace of hiring, BCA strategists said.

Persons: — Organizations: Research, Service, BCA Research, Fed, ECB, Deutsche Bank , Bank of America, RBC Capital Markets

☆ Here's when market experts think inflation will get back to normal
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

While many experts don't see inflation getting back to normal just yet, it could in a year or two. Consumer price inflation has been mostly slowing this year. Some experts see inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index being around 2% — the Fed's target year-over-year rate of price growth — by some time in 2024. Advertisement"We foresee headline and core CPI inflation around 2.2% y/y in Q4 2024," Daco said in his commentary. Goldman Sachs forecasts that measure is expected to cool off and see a 2.4% year-over-year increase in December 2024.

Persons: J.P, David Kelly, —, Gregory Daco, Daco, Kelly, ING's James Knightley, Sarah Foster's, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Mark Hamrick, Hamrick Organizations: Morgan, Service, Consumer, CPI, Morgan Asset Management, Bankrate, Federal Reserve, Federal, Business

A recently edgy bond market gobbled all that up. Funds' bonds allocation in November soared 18 points over the month to leave them net 19% overweight - almost 3 standard deviations above long-term averages. Asset managers' overweight bond positions - or at least those in government bonds and U.S. Treasuries - tends to be mirrored by big short positions in Treasury futures among speculative hedge funds. CFTC numbers show the scale of that speculative 'Big Short' on the flipside of the mounting 'Big Long' built by regular asset managers. Lamont points out that U.S. Treasury yields and investment grade corporate debt yields would have to rise about another 100bps for the capital losses to wipe out current yields.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Lazard, Ronald Temple, Lombard Odier's Florian Ielpo, Duncan Lamont, Lamont, Jason Pride, Mike Dolan, Susan Fenton Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Bank of America's, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, what's

☆ Inflation cooled off in October
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Inflation cooled off in October based on new year-over-year data out Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index increased 3.2% year over year in October, less than the year-over-year increase of 3.7% in September. AdvertisementInflation cooled but is still above the Fed's 2% target per the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, for October. The year-over-year increase in October was just less than the forecast of 3.3%, and the increase is less than the September's 3.7% year-over-year increase . AdvertisementThe food index didn't see as large an increase as the shelter index, with a year-over-year increase of 3.3%.

Persons: —, David Kelly, Kelly, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Morgan Asset Management, PMI, Federal Reserve, Federal

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Bond yields resurge on Powell’s speech
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference in Washington DC, United States on November 09, 2023. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. But SoftBank still recorded a quarterly loss of 931.1 billion yen — that's around $6.2 billion — on the collapse of WeWork. [PRO] Higher than neutralThe Federal Reserve projects the U.S.' neutral interest rate — the so-called rate at which rates neither encourage nor constrict the economy — to be 2.5%.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jacques Polak, Hawkish Powell, Powell, there's, Tesla, SoftBank, Goldman Sachs Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Washington DC, CNBC, Nasdaq, AstraZeneca, Azelis, HSBC Global, HSBC, Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Washington, United States, U.S, Belgian, Tesla's, SoftBank

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Powell’s hawkish speech sent bond yields soaring
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Hawkish PowellIn a speech that carried broad hawkish overtones, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank is "not confident" monetary policy is "sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent." Still, Powell acknowledged there's a "risk of overtightening," and said "monetary policy is generally working the way we think it should work." Both are economic giants that have yet to achieve their full potential, but hold promises for emerging market investors.

Persons: Hawkish Powell, Jerome Powell, Powell, there's, Hong, Wynn Macau, Tesla's, Tesla, SMIC Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Wynn, HSBC Global, HSBC, Li Auto, Chinese Passenger Car Association Locations: U.S, Asia, Pacific, Tesla's, China, India, —

☆ Powell says Fed is 'not confident' it has done enough to bring inflation down
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

For the second time in recent weeks, a public speech from Powell was interrupted by climate protesters. Powell said that inflation is "well above" where the Fed would like to see it. "The Fed will be true to its mandate and hike further should inflation reaccelerate." "Monetary policy is generally working the way we think it should work" Powell said during a discussion following his speech. But Powell noted that the Fed is "attentive" that stronger than expected growth could undermine the fight against inflation and "warrant a response from monetary policy."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Stocks, Jeffrey Roach, Jacques Polak Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Dow Jones, Treasury, LPL, CME Group, Traders, Gross, Research Locations: Washington ,

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell answers a question at a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. The fight to restore price stability "has a long way to go," the Fed chair said. Going forward, "it may be that a greater share of the progress in reducing inflation will have to come from tight monetary policy restraining the growth of aggregate demand," Powell said. "Supply shocks that have a persistent effect on potential output could call for restrictive policy to better align aggregate demand with the suppressed level of aggregate supply," he said. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Powell, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Rights, . Federal, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ Fed’s Neel Kashkari Not Convinced Rate Hikes Are Over
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Bob Fernandez | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said he has concerns about inflation “ticking up again. That’s what I’m worried about.” Photo: MIKE SEGAR/REUTERSA top Federal Reserve official said he would err on the side of overtightening monetary policy rather than not doing enough to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% target. “Undertightening will not get us back to 2% in a reasonable time,” Neel Kashkari , the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Monday.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, MIKE SEGAR, Undertightening, ” Neel Kashkari Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of, ”, REUTERS, Federal, Wall Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

☆ ECB done with hikes barring unforeseen shocks, Bank of Portugal's Centeno says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB done with hikes barring unforeseen shocks, Bank of Portugal's Centeno saysGovernor of the Bank of Portugal Mario Centeno discusses peak rates, the risks of overtightening, ECB tools and the euro zone economy.

Persons: Portugal's Centeno, Bank of Portugal Mario Centeno Organizations: Bank, Portugal's, Bank of Locations: Bank of Portugal, overtightening

☆ The Fed is throwing 'kerosene on the fire' and needs to end rate hikes as inflation is probably already at 2%, billionaire real estate mogul Barry Sternlicht says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's rate hikes are the equivalent of throwing "kerosene on the fire," Barry Sternlicht said. The real estate mogul has been a loud critic of the Fed policy. High interest rates mean the US is bound to enter a slowdown, he warned in a recent interview. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Central bankers raised interest rates aggressively in the last 18 months to lower inflation.

Persons: Barry Sternlicht, —, Sternlicht, Powell Organizations: Service, Reserve, Starwood Capital Group, Fed, CNBC Locations: United States

☆ Here are 6 key economic signals for markets to follow as the Fed gets ready to make its next policy move
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There are six key economic indicators for markets to gauge the health of the US economy. The US is likely headed for a mild recession, according to one chief investment officer. Markets are currently pricing in a 99% chance the Fed will choose to keep interest rates unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Small business optimism is waningSmall business optimism slumped over the past month to 91.3, down 0.6 points from July's reading. But real wages of Americans have actually fallen 0.5% over the past month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which could spell trouble for the US consumer.

Persons: Brent Schutte, Schutte Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Cleveland Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, San Francisco Fed, University of Michigan's Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ US economy will 'hit a wall' by the spring – and inflation could spike again, warns 'bond king' Jeffrey Gundlach
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy is likely to "hit a wall" by next spring, Jeffrey Gundlach warned. The government may try to spend its way out of trouble, reigniting inflation, Gundlach said. They now face a "dangerous cocktail" of inflated living costs, steeper rents, larger interest payments on their credit cards, the resumption of student-loan repayments, and taxes coming due, he continued. Gundlach — whose nickname is the "bond king" — predicted the plethora of financial pressures would tank the economy. He emphasized that the government's interest payments are already exploding, and warned they could grow substantially in the coming years.

Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, — Organizations: DoubleLine, Service, Fox Business, DoubleLine Capital, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Possible Fed overtightening makes recession more likely than not, Deutsche Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Despite recent optimism around the U.S. economy, a recession remains a more likely scenario than a so-called "soft landing" as the Federal Reserve seeks to curb inflation by tightening monetary conditions, Deutsche Bank said on Wednesday. "Given that inflation peaked significantly above target, the Fed should err on the side of tightening too much, rather than too little," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note. "A US recession remains more likely than not." In contrast to Deutsche Bank's forecasts, several banks have in recent months revised or pushed out their earlier recession calls. Goldman Sachs analysts on Monday said they had further reduced their 12-month U.S. recession probability to 15% from a previous 20% estimate.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Davide Barbuscia, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, Thomson Locations: U.S

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, due on Thursday, is expected to show a slight year-over-year acceleration. On a month-to-month basis, consumer prices are seen increasing 0.2%, the same rate as in June. [1/2]Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 7, 2023. ET, Dow e-minis were up 44 points, or 0.12%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 9 points, or 0.20%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 31.5 points, or 0.21%. Of the 443 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings as of Tuesday, 78.6% beat analyst expectations, according to Refinitiv data.

Persons: Patrick Harker, Michelle Bowman, FEDWATCH, Brendan McDermid, Michael Hewson, Penn Entertainment's, Walt Disney's, Uber, Bansari Mayur, Shounak Dasgupta Organizations: Penn, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Index, Philadelphia Fed, Traders, Bank of America, Citigroup, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, ECB, Bank of England, CMC Markets, Dow e, Casino, Walt, Walt Disney's ESPN, Rivian, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York City, Asia, Bengaluru

Economists polled by Reuters last week forecast BoE rates would peak at 5.75% later this year. The BoE forecast inflation would fall to 4.9% by the end of this year - a faster decline than it had predicted in May. Wage rises had been a bigger driver of high inflation than companies' profit margins, the BoE said. The BoE forecast housing investment would fall 5.75% this year and 6.25% in 2024. (This story has been corrected to clarify that the unemployment rate forecast is for late 2025, not late 2024, in paragraph 17)Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Hollie Adams, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Catherine Mann, Jonathan Haskel, Swati Dhingra, Rishi Sunak Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Reuters, MPC, Markets, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain

☆ The Fed has paused before. Here’s what happened next
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The Fed had a similar predicament in 2006After raising interest rates 17 consecutive times between June 2004 and June 2006, Fed officials became concerned that they could inadvertently damage the economy if they continued to hike rates. When the Fed met again in September, many officials expressed concerns that raising interest rates after a short, six-week pause would broadcast the wrong message. Lacker continued to be the sole Fed official who favored raising interest rates until his term expired at the end of the year. “It’s pretty easy to believe that the Fed will find that it didn’t raise rates enough and so choose to raise rates somewhat further before stopping and, later on, reducing rates,” he said. Fed officials then opted for a pause in the fall of 1994 and raised rates further in the winter.

Persons: Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, “, ” Michael Moskow, ”, Cathy Minehan, Jeffrey Lacker, Lacker, Jerome Powell, Liu Jie, Athanasios Orphanides, Austan Goolsbee, William English Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Traders, Fed, Committee, Washington , D.C, Bloomberg, Getty, Chicago Fed, Boston Fed, Richmond Fed, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, European Central Bank, Food Forum, Yale University Locations: New York, Washington ,, Xinhua, Chicago

☆ Asia shares buoyed by Fed pause bets; dollar heavy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese and Australian bond yields followed those on U.S. Treasuries lower, and the dollar remained on the defensive early in the Asian session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) added 0.6%, and at one point touched its strongest level since Feb. 16. Traders now lay 1-in-4 odds for the Fed to raise rates by a quarter point on June 14, versus 75% probability of a pause. "I wouldn't go all in and say we're going to get a rate hike, but I think we should be at least 50% priced," said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets in Sydney. The dollar added 0.15% to 139.135 yen , after earlier slipping to a one-week low of 138.765.

Persons: Hong, Tony Sycamore, Jerome, Powell's, Powell, undertightening, Tayyip Erdogan's, WTI fututes, Kevin Buckland, Stephen Coates Organizations: Federal Reserve, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Fed, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, IG Markets, New, U.S, West Texas, Brent, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Asia, Pacific, Sydney, Tokyo, New York, U.S, United States, Iran

☆ The Fed pursuing 2% inflation is an 'absolute trap' for the economy, 40-year market veteran says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's 2% inflation goal is an "absolute trap," according to 40-year market veteran Barry Knapp. Knapp pointed to tightening credit conditions, suggesting more tightening from the Fed could cause a recession. Elevated prices aren't always a drag on the economy, he added, pointing to 3%-4% inflation in the 90s. "The whole 2% target is an absolute trap," The Ironsides Macroeconomics founder said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday. But elevated inflation isn't necessarily a hindrance to the economy, Knapp said, pointing to 3%-4% inflation in the early 90s, years when the economy expanded and benefited from a huge boom in business spending.

☆ Nobel economist Paul Krugman says this is the best job market in decades, and the Fed doesn't need high unemployment to bring down inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed doesn't need to raise unemployment to lower inflation, Paul Krugman said. That suggests the labor market is sustainable, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said otherwise. Central bankers raised interest rates over 1,700% in the past year to tame inflation and rein in economic growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said rates will likely need to stay elevated until the labor market cools. But inflation measures have been cooling without a rise in unemployment, Krugman said.

☆ The Fed will likely overtighten, says Odyssey's Jason Snipe
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will likely overtighten, says Odyssey's Jason SnipeKari Firestone, Steve Weiss, Jason Snipe and Jim Lebenthal join 'Halftime Report' to discuss the current state of the economy, the possibility of the Fed overtightening, and more.

☆ Watch CNBC's investment committee discuss Fed policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's investment committee discuss Fed policyKari Firestone, Steve Weiss, Jason Snipe and Jim Lebenthal join 'Halftime Report' to discuss the current state of the economy, the possibility of the Fed overtightening, and more.

☆ The bank failures have opened up Pandora's box, and the huge hole in banks' balance sheets isn't going away, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The recent banking failures have opened up a Pandora's box, TD strategist Priya Misra warned. The gaping hole in banks' balance sheets will remain even as volatility fades, she said. "I think you opened a Pandora's box and massive unrealized losses sitting on banks' balance sheets," she said, adding that banks would likely need to sell their assets or raise capital. "The market will have to get used to a Fed that's not being responsive enough," Misra warned. Other Wall Street analysts have warned of a recession to strike this year, which could weigh heavily on stocks.

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